Economic activity in Tairāwhiti remains lower of the last year, although there are some signs of stabilisation in the latest quarter. Provisional estimates from Infometricsshow a 0.5%pa recovery in economic activity for the June 2024 quarter compared to a year earlier, slowing the annual decline to 0.3%pa over the 12 months to June 2024. Still-challenging conditions for the primary sector, and constrained spending activity, have kept the economy more muted, although construction has provided greater economic support.
Primary sector activity remains financially constrained, with higher volumes, lower prices, and still-uncomfortable costs. Livestock kills in the June quarter were up 3.4%pa in Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay, a solid result but behind national growth of 6.6%pa. Meat prices have shown some recovery in recent months, with beef prices at the end of June sitting 2.1% higher than a year ago. Sheep meat prices remain lower, by 16-33%pa, but have also shown improvement in recent months. Forestry product export values are down 5.8%pa nationally in the June quarter, and prices recently have remained at near-ten-year lows.
Employment of Tairāwhiti residents has fallen in recent months, with a 1.2%pa fall in the June 2024 quarter – one of the larger falls nationally. This fall has slowed annual average employment growth to 0.6%. Jobs have been lost in the primary sector, food production, retail and wholesale trade, and professional services industries, although there have been gains in construction, health, and education.
Lower retail and wholesale trade employment is reflective of softer spending activity growth locally. Market view consumer card spending data shows a 1.0%pa increase in spending in the June quarter, taking annual spending growth to 4.8%.
Non-residential consent values are up 151%pa in the June 2024 quarter, taking annual growth to 36%pa – compared to a nearly 10%pa drop nationally. Residential consent numbers also bucked the trend, up 17%pa in the latest quarter – for the best quarter since September 2011 – and limiting the annual downturn to just -1.6%pa against the 25%pa fall nationally.
Tairāwhiti’s crime rate continues to fall, with 428 crimes per 10,000 population on average over the latest year, down from 483 a year ago. However, the crime rate in Tairāwhiti remains higher than the national average of 230 crimes per 10,000 population.
Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor Tairāwhiti March 2024