Tairāwhiti is showing some early signs of green shoots, despite still-challenging conditions in the local economy. Provisional estimates from Infometrics show a 0.2% rise in economic activity over the 12 months to September 2024 compared to a year before. Although this result is stronger than the national average, it also compares to a period affected by Cyclone Gabrielle, and so in broad terms the economy is tracking sideways still at present. The number of Tairāwhiti residents in a job fell 1.0%pa in the September 2024 quarter, slowing annual average growth in jobs to just 0.3%pa over the 12 months to September 2024. There were more jobs across health, construction, education, arts, and the public sector, but these were more than offset by losses elsewhere. Primary sector employment has driven the decline, with fewer jobs across forestry, horticulture, and farming. Newspaper publishing employment has fallen too locally.

The primary sector is still under clear pressure, despite on-farm costs stabilising (at still-high levels). Meat prices have recovered too in recent months, with slaughter prices across sheep and beef above a year ago as demand recovers somewhat, particularly from the US. However, the number of livestock killed in Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay over the September 2024 quarter was 9.9% lower than a year ago. Forestry activity remains challenging too, with national wood and forestry product exports down on a year ago, despite as light improvement in recent months, with lower forestry commodity prices too.

The Tairāwhiti housing market is busier than in other areas, with a strong 23%pa lift in house sale sand a smaller 6.6%pa lift in properties listed for sales. As a result, house values have lifted marginally, up 1.1%pa. This result has limited the decline in residential consents to just 1.1%pa over the last year. Non-residential consent values dropped too, down 30%pa, albeit from high levels. Infrastructure work across the region will remain important, with an increase in this workforce over the last year. The number of applicants on the Housing Register continues to fall, and is now down 2.7%pa in Tairāwhiti.

Households remain careful with their money, and spending growth has slowed. Market view cards pending data shows a 3.2%pa increase in spending on average over the last year, the second-fastest increase of all regions in New Zealand. Part of this stronger spending is likely linked to post-cyclone recovery efforts. Our newly-introduced greenhouse gas emissions indicator shows a slight increase in annual carbon emissions in Tairāwhiti, up 2.0%pa over the year ending September 2024. Emissions have been tracking broadly sideways since the start of 2023.

 

Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor Tairāwhiti September 2024

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